Encode Reality Lab
Bibliography

Sources & citations

Encode Reality Lab is a constructivist project: every model and every claim should trace back to a real source, not to conjecture. This is the running bibliography behind the lab — the papers, books and reports the models are built on. Each link opens the work itself (via its DOI where one exists). Models cite their sources on the Simulate page; the theory articles cite theirs in the Wiki. Spotted a missing or better source? It belongs here.

Dynamics, mathematics & the natural sciences

  1. T. R. Malthus (1798). An Essay on the Principle of Population. J. Johnson, London.The original account of geometric (exponential) growth.
  2. P.-F. Verhulst (1838). Notice sur la loi que la population suit dans son accroissement. Correspondance Mathématique et Physique 10, 113–121.Introduces the logistic curve — growth against a carrying capacity.
  3. A. J. Lotka (1925). Elements of Physical Biology. Williams & Wilkins.One half of the predator–prey (Lotka–Volterra) equations.
  4. V. Volterra (1926). Fluctuations in the Abundance of a Species considered Mathematically. Nature 118, 558–560. DOI ↗Derives predator–prey cycles independently of Lotka.
  5. B. van der Pol (1926). On “Relaxation-Oscillations”. The London, Edinburgh, and Dublin Philosophical Magazine 2(11), 978–992. DOI ↗The self-sustaining limit-cycle oscillator, built for radio circuits.
  6. W. O. Kermack & A. G. McKendrick (1927). A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics. Proceedings of the Royal Society A 115(772), 700–721. DOI ↗The SIR compartmental model and the epidemic threshold.
  7. C. S. Holling (1959). Some Characteristics of Simple Types of Predation and Parasitism. The Canadian Entomologist 91(7), 385–398. DOI ↗The saturating (type-II) functional response used in the agent model.
  8. E. N. Lorenz (1963). Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 20(2), 130–141. DOI ↗Deterministic chaos and the 'butterfly effect'.
  9. S. H. Strogatz (2015). Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos (2nd ed.). Westview Press / CRC Press.Standard reference for oscillators, limit cycles and chaos.

Economic dynamics & financial instability

  1. A. W. Phillips (1958). The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957. Economica 25(100), 283–299. DOI ↗The wage–employment relation that drives the Goodwin cycle.
  2. R. M. Goodwin (1967). A Growth Cycle. In C. H. Feinstein (ed.), Socialism, Capitalism and Economic Growth, Cambridge University Press.Capitalism as a predator–prey cycle of employment and wage share.
  3. H. P. Minsky (1986). Stabilizing an Unstable Economy. Yale University Press.The book-length statement of the Financial Instability Hypothesis.
  4. H. P. Minsky (1992). The Financial Instability Hypothesis. Levy Economics Institute Working Paper No. 74. link ↗Stability is destabilising: booms breed fragile finance.
  5. S. Keen (1995). Finance and Economic Breakdown: Modeling Minsky's ‘Financial Instability Hypothesis’. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 17(4), 607–635. DOI ↗First dynamic, simulatable model of Minsky's hypothesis.
  6. P. Gai & S. Kapadia (2010). Contagion in Financial Networks. Proceedings of the Royal Society A 466(2120), 2401–2423. DOI ↗How shocks cascade across an exposure network — the credit-cascade model.
  7. S. Keen (2013). A monetary Minsky model of the Great Moderation and the Great Recession. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 86, 221–235. DOI ↗Endogenous-money Minsky model with Godley tables.

Money, banking & Modern Monetary Theory

  1. W. Godley (1999). Seven Unsustainable Processes. Levy Economics Institute, Special Report. link ↗Sectoral balances applied to forecast the US imbalances of the 2000s.
  2. S. Bell (Kelton) (2000). Do Taxes and Bonds Finance Government Spending?. Journal of Economic Issues 34(3), 603–620. DOI ↗The canonical MMT argument: bond sales drain reserves to defend the rate, they do not 'fund' spending.
  3. W. Godley & M. Lavoie (2007). Monetary Economics: An Integrated Approach to Credit, Money, Income, Production and Wealth. Palgrave Macmillan.The definitive text on stock-flow-consistent (Godley-table) modelling.
  4. W. Mosler (2010). Seven Deadly Innocent Frauds of Economic Policy. Valance Co.. link ↗The currency-issuer-vs-user distinction, stated plainly; a founding MMT text.
  5. M. McLeay, A. Radia & R. Thomas (2014). Money Creation in the Modern Economy. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin 2014 Q1. link ↗The central bank's own account: banks create money by lending.
  6. L. R. Wray (2015). Modern Money Theory: A Primer on Macroeconomics for Sovereign Monetary Systems (2nd ed.). Palgrave Macmillan.Core MMT primer on currency issuers and sectoral balances.
  7. W. Mitchell, L. R. Wray & M. Watts (2019). Macroeconomics. Red Globe Press / Bloomsbury.The first full university macro textbook written from an MMT perspective.
  8. S. Kelton (2020). The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and the Birth of the People's Economy. PublicAffairs.Popular case that a currency issuer is not a household.

Systems thinking & agent-based modelling

  1. J. W. Forrester (1961). Industrial Dynamics. MIT Press.Founds system dynamics: stocks, flows and feedback.
  2. T. C. Schelling (1971). Dynamic Models of Segregation. Journal of Mathematical Sociology 1(2), 143–186. DOI ↗Emergence from individual rules — the template for social ABMs.
  3. J. M. Epstein & R. Axtell (1996). Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom Up. Brookings / MIT Press.Agent-based modelling as 'generative' social science.
  4. D. H. Meadows (2008). Thinking in Systems: A Primer. Chelsea Green.The accessible introduction to stocks, flows and feedback.